FIO-ESM气候模式北太平洋海表温度和降水的季节性预报技巧评估     

赵一丁  尹训强  宋亚娟  乔方利 《海洋学报(英文版)》2019,38(1):5-12

The seasonal prediction of sea surface temperature(SST) and precipitation in the North Pacific based on the hindcast results of The First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model(FIO-ESM) is assessed in this study.The Ensemble Adjusted Kalman Filter assimilation scheme is used to generate initial conditions, which are shown to be reliable by comparison with the observations. Based on this comparison, we analyze the FIO-ESM 6-month hindcast results starting from each month of 1993–2013. The model exhibits high SST prediction skills over most of the North Pacific for two seasons in advance. Furthermore, it remains skillful at long lead times for midlatitudes. The reliable prediction of SST can transfer fairly well to precipitation prediction via air-sea interactions.The average skill of the North Pacific variability(NPV) index from 1 to 6 months lead is as high as 0.72(0.55) when El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation and NPV are in phase(out of phase) at initial conditions. The prediction skill of the NPV index of FIO-ESM is improved by 11.6%(23.6%) over the Climate Forecast System, Version 2. For seasonal dependence, the skill of FIO-ESM is higher than the skill of persistence prediction in the later period of prediction.  相似文献   

上层海洋对台风"凯萨娜"(2009)的响应特征   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

王冠琳  李大伟  徐腾飞  滕飞  魏泽勋 《海洋科学》2019,43(9):1-11

本文利用多源卫星遥感数据和Argo浮标数据对2009年台风"凯萨娜"过后,南海上层海洋的物理和生态响应特征进行了分析。结果表明,"凯萨娜"引起的上升流流速最大可以达到1.6×10~(–3)m/s,台风过后,海表面温度(SST)下降显著,最大降温幅度可以达到6℃,海表面高度降低,先前存在的中尺度冷涡进一步加强。台风过后,沿着台风路径,叶绿素浓度升高,最大值可以达到2 mg/m~3以上,初级生产力升高到台风过境前的5倍。SST的最大降温中心与海面高度下降区域以及叶绿素浓度升高的区域一致。Argo数据表明台风诱发了强烈的垂向混合和艾克曼泵吸,不同位置处,垂向混合和艾克曼泵吸的强度不一样。通过混合和泵吸过程,台风可以把海洋内部的营养盐输送到海洋表层,对整个南海的物理和生态过程有重要影响。  相似文献   

大气负荷对新疆地区地壳形变和地面重力变化的影响     

王海涛  王斌  王伟  章传银 《大地测量与地球动力学》2019,39(2):189-194

基于ECMWF全球大气模型和中国地面气候资料日值数据集中新疆及周边的气象站气压数据，根据弹性地壳形变理论，采用移去-恢复法，利用负荷格林函数法和球谐函数法，计算新疆及周边区域2011~2015年大气负荷变化对地壳垂直、水平形变的影响，同时采用大气导纳方法计算大气变化对地面重力的影响。结果表明，大气负荷对新疆地区垂直形变的影响达到cm级，对地面重力的影响可达10 μGal；大气负荷影响具有明显的季节性。  相似文献   

Study on wetting deformation characteristics of coarse granular materials and its simulation in core-wall rockfill dams     

Xiongxiong Zhou  Shichun Chi  Maohua Wang  Yufeng Jia 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2020,44(6):851-873

The wetting deformation of coarse granular materials is often considered to be an important cause of the core wall rockfill dam cracks during impounding. By analyzing existing research results, this paper proposes a hyperbolic relationship between the wetting axial strain and wetting stress level and puts forwards a warped surface relationship among spherical stress, shear stress, and the ratio of wetting volumetric strain to wetting axial strain. To illustrate its practicability, the wetting strain model's parameter determination process is introduced and the rockfill materials wetting parameters are determined using the triaxial wetting test data. Moreover, the collapse settlement of Guanyinyan rockfill dam during first impounding is numerically simulated using the proposed method to calculate rockfill wetting deformation and verified by field measurements and monitoring data. The results show that the calculative method of wetting deformation proposed in this paper is reasonable and practical; the wetting deformation of upstream rockfill materials would cause an adverse deformation trend, which may lead to crack occurrence at the upstream slope and dam crest; and the Guanyinyan rockfill dam cracks on the top of junction mainly caused by the wetting deformation of upstream rockfill.  相似文献   

云南中甸-大具断裂上新发现的地震地表破裂带   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

程理  苏刚  李光涛  尹功明  吴昊  余建强 《震灾防御技术》2019,14(4):797-809

中甸-大具断裂是川滇菱形块体的西南边界，总体走向310°—320°。近年来我们对该断裂进行了1:50000条带状地质填图，发现了断裂活动的地质地貌证据。其中，在丽江大具盆地内（金沙江右岸）沿断裂新发现一处典型地震地表破裂带，长约600m，宽120m左右，主要表现为地表挤压鼓包、挤压垄脊、张裂缝、挤压阶区等，呈NW走向，与中甸-大具断裂走向基本一致。野外工作中，我们详细记录和测量了地表破裂的破裂样式、破裂规模和相关定量数据，利用旋翼无人机测绘了地表破裂带的形态和展布，获得了高精度DEM，分析了地表破裂表现出的运动性质。在已有资料的基础上讨论了地表破裂的形成时代、归属、震级大小，简要分析了其发震断层。新地震地表破裂带的发现为进一步研究中甸-大具断裂活动特征、古地震及地震危险性提供了基础资料。  相似文献   

蒸发波导对GNSS海面反射信号有效散射区域的影响          下载免费PDF全文

刘黎军  夏俊明  白伟华  孙越强  杜起飞  骆黎明 《地球物理学报》2019,62(2):499-507

蒸发波导在海洋低空的发生概率高达90%,对舰船雷达、通信等电磁系统具有重要影响.为了分析利用GNSS卫星海面反射信号的时延-相关功率波形反演蒸发波导的可行性,本文提出了GNSS卫星海面反射信号的有效散射区域的概念,并将有效散射区域内的GNSS反射信号区分为GNSS标准反射信号和GNSS波导反射信号;然后,利用射线追踪方法,仿真分析了GNSS卫星海面反射信号的有效散射区域大小对蒸发波导的关键参数——波导高度的敏感性,并分析了在时延-相关功率波形上利用反射信号的传播时延将二者分离开的可行性.结果表明,GNSS卫星海面反射信号的有效散射区域对蒸发波导高度非常敏感,对于2～25m高的GNSS反射信号接收天线,当蒸发波导的高度由0m增加至20m时,GNSS反射信号有效散射区域半径的均值可由约14km迅速扩展至约160km;采用高度角足够大的GNSS卫星可以将有效散射区内的GNSS标准反射信号与GNSS波导反射信号在时延-相关功率波形上分离开.  相似文献   

利用水系沉积物高程定量恢复古地貌的技术方法——以鲁西白彦地区白彦砾岩为例          下载免费PDF全文

程光锁  于学峰  杨斌  胡戈  李兆营  周军  刘卫东  罗文强  马祥县 《山东国土资源》2019,35(9)

主要分析了构造抬升对水系和地形的影响和恢复,以从古生代灰岩围岩中大面积但零星出露的岩溶砾岩点为研究对象,对区域古水系和地形地貌恢复和反演做出了新的尝试。在收集资料和实测的基础上,尝试性探讨了利用稳定水体参照物高程反演抬升高度以及邻区山峰点的古高程、古水系,恢复区域上古地形地貌的技术方法。并以白彦地区为例,通过白彦岩溶砾岩的分布、产状、金刚石矿物含量、岩性等地质特征,恢复白彦地区古地形线、古水系位置和流向等古地理地貌,指出在白彦期时代,该区总体发育4个水系,邹城市大石墙水系、枣庄水系、平邑水系、费县水系,水系中金刚石含量较为丰富的砾岩点大多分布在凤凰山隆起中心,其中在平邑水系推测存在一个山地峡谷中的古湖泊。认为蒙山凸起中已知的常马庄地区的金伯利岩脉所含有金刚石可能主要供应平邑区水系,其他3个地区水系的金刚石可能来源于凤凰山及其东部隆起剥蚀地区。  相似文献   

Coupled groundwater flow and heat transport simulation for estimating transient aquifer–stream exchange at the lowland River Spree (Germany)          下载免费PDF全文

Gunnar Nützmann  Christian Levers  Jörg Lewandowski 《水文研究》2014,28(13):4078-4090

Subsurface flow and heat transport near Freienbrink, NE Germany, was simulated in order to study groundwater–surface water exchange between a floodplains aquifer and a section of the lowland River Spree and an adjacent oxbow. Groundwater exfiltration was the dominant process, and only fast surface water level rises resulted in temporary infiltration into the aquifer. The main groundwater flow paths are identified based on a 3D groundwater flow model. To estimate mass fluxes across the aquifer–surface water interfaces, a 2D flow and heat transport modelling approach along a transect of 12 piezometers was performed. Results of steady‐state and transient water level simulations show an overall high accuracy with a Spearman coefficient ρ = 0.9996 and root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.008 m. Based on small groundwater flow velocities of about 10^?7 to 10^?6 ms^?1, mean groundwater exfiltration rates of 233 l m^?2 d^?1 are calculated. Short periods of surface water infiltration into the aquifer do not exceed 10 days, and the infiltration rates are in the same range. The heat transport was modelled with slightly less accuracy (ρ = 0.8359 and RMSE = 0.34 °C). In contrast to the predominant groundwater exfiltration, surface water temperatures determine the calculated temperatures in the upper aquifer below both surface water bodies down to 10 m during the whole simulation period. These findings emphasize prevailing of heat conduction over advection in the upper aquifer zones, which seems to be typical for lowland streams with sandy aquifer materials and low hydraulic gradients. Moreover, this study shows the potential of coupled numerical flow and heat transport modelling to understand groundwater–surface water exchange processes in detail. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Minor inheritance inhibits the calibration of the 10Be production rate from the AD 1717 Val Ferret rock avalanche,European Alps          下载免费PDF全文

NAKI AKÇAR  SUSAN IVY‐OCHS  PHILIP DELINE  VASILY ALFIMOV  PETER W. KUBIK  MARCUS CHRISTL  CHRISTIAN SCHLÜCHTER 《第四纪科学杂志》2014,29(4):318-328

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Risk Analysis of Breakwater Caisson Under Wave Attack Using Load Surface Approximation     

Dong Hyawn KIM 《中国海洋工程》2014,(6):739-748

A new load surface based approach to the reliability analysis of caisson-type breakwater is proposed. Uncertainties of the horizontal and vertical wave loads acting on breakwater are considered by using the so-called load surfaces, which can be estimated as functions of wave height, water level, and so on. Then, the first-order reliability method（FORM） can be applied to determine the probability of failure under the wave action. In this way, the reliability analysis of breakwaters with uncertainties both in wave height and in water level is possible. Moreover, the uncertainty in wave breaking can be taken into account by considering a random variable for wave height ratio which relates the significant wave height to the maximum wave height. The proposed approach is applied numerically to the reliability analysis of caisson breakwater under wave attack that may undergo partial or full wave breaking.  相似文献